STRATEGY OF SABOTAGE - how the NCP in Khartoum wants to stop the referunda

The National Congress Party employs a variety of tactics to sabotage January’s referenda. Because a 60% quorum (of a still undefined electorate) is needed and a 51% vote for or against, every NCP move counts.
● Backing militias to destabilise the South. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement now openly blames its ‘partner’ for supporting Uganda’s Lord’s Resistance Army (increased attacks in Western Equatoria), General George Athor Deng’s militia in Jonglei, Colonel Galwak Gai Deng (Unity State), and Lam Akol Ajawin (Upper Nile). It says it has evidence (AC Vol 51 No 12).
● Backing anti-SPLM Southern parties. The SPLM has countered this effectively; many oppositionists have joined the SPLM or agreed to cooperate.
● Creating uncertainty about whether the referendum will be free and ‘credible’. The NCP repeatedly says any fair vote could only be for unity.
● Spreading uncertainty that the referendum will take place.
● Harassing the SPLM in the North, including presidential candidate Yasir Saeed Arman and the Ajrass Hurriya newspaper.
● Refusing SPLM candidates for the referenda commissions. The SPLM, however, cannot refuse NCP candidates.
● Appointing Northerners to both the chair and secretary generalship of the South Sudan
Referendum Commission. The SPLM accepted Omer el Sheikh as SG this week only ‘to break the impasse’, said a source. Omer then reportedly resigned, further delaying preparations. Chairman Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil earlier threatened to resign.
● Turning the SPLM’s insistence on holding the votes on time against it by pressuring it to accept NCP terms.
● Paying Juba its share of oil money in local currency this month, creating shortages in an import-dependent South.
● Using deniable Islamist groups such as Hizb el Tahrir to call for abandoning the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the Southern right to independence.
● Failing to agree on voting eligibility or numbers of Southerners in the North.
● Failing to allow a debate in the North but accusing the SPLM of breaking the CPA by backing separation.
● Encouraging interested foreigners to take an even-handed approach (as in Darfur), even though the NCP wants the CPA to fail while the SPLM wants it to succeed.
● Failing to enable the demarcation of the borders of Abyei and between North and South. The NCP can then claim the votes were invalid.
● Fuelling African fears of state disintegration. Even South African ex-President Thabo Mbeki mentioned this danger.
● Convincing Arab governments of a Zionist plot to dismember Arab countries.
● Fuelling Western fears of more ‘failed states’ in the global south.
● Portraying the Nile as under threat.
● Withholding referendum funds from Juba

Source: Africa Confidential

What is Sudan?

I nipped this piece from this blog. I found the sentiment funny, to say the least.

"An uncertain country haphazardly cobbled together first by the Ottomans in the 19th century and later by the British during the 20th. It has no cultural coherence or geopolitical logic, even though its populations have become used to living together". Gerard Prunier

The past 50 years of independence and the more than 30 years of conflict in Southern Sudan has shown that they HAVE failed to really live together. Sorry, Mr Prunier.

We are 39,154,490!

It is now official: the census results shows that Sudan has a poplation of 39,154,490 people. It is here but for the analysis, come back later.

Sudan election pushed back to 2010!

 It kind of not surprising that he elections has been put back to 2010. The selected date of of somewhere in July has been overshadowed by events so huge that it is inevitable that soemthing gives way.

Reasons of census results and borders are all true but they masks the real issues. Even before the ICC debacle and others, the impelemntation of the CPA was on a snail pace. There are still more to be desired.

Let the count down begin . . .

Another peace process for Darfur?

Will there be peace in Darfur . . .? I began to see it as a long gone possibility. Let us resign to the fact that it is going to be a long, long process. . .

With the myriad of peace processes coming up everyday: African Union, Libyan, Saudi Arabian, Nigerian, Qatari, I wonder which one will bear fruit. Can't someone just merge all these together?

Egypt is again throwing its lot into the peace process business. That is making the whole thing interesting? Was it to counter the Qatari Peace process? Egypt skipped the Arab Summit in Qatar and now comes up with another peace process. I know not for what reason.

While they keep on meetimg in the Arab capitals, Darfur still cries . . .

(Yawn)

Queen Noor speaks . . .

Darfur an "obscenity", we are told . . .

 Queen Noor has added her voice to the cry coming out of Darfur. If not for the timing I would ask where has she been hiding all this time.

Maybe the ICC thing shook her from her slumber . . .(Sorry Queen!)

ICC, Arab League and Bashir

So Bashir is in  Doha for the Arab Summit

It is expected that the Sudanese president will want to show the world that he cannot be intimidated by the ICC warrant, about which he once said "soak in water and drink it". Nothing new there.

I was watching the news and all are concerned whether the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon will sit and listen to Bashir delivering his speech. My advise: Mr Moon, don't listen to the Americans, sit there and listen to what Bashir wants to say . . . Walking out is not a good sign ffrom the wolrd's top diplomat.

Let us wait and see.

'Arab World's Dirty Secret' Exposed.

Egyptians are racist. That is a fact that Muna Eltahawy only discovered recently in a metro in Cairo.

There are lots of South Sudanese in Egypt who go through the same abuse and racists taunts everyday. I once blogged about Egyptians are trying to woe the Southern Sudanese here. And last month Hosni Mubarak was in Juba, a visit that evryone knows was about the Nile water. I wonder what he will tell the South Sudanese if he read the story.

At least Muna spoke about it.

"The racism I saw on the Cairo Metro has an echo in the Arab world at large, where the suffering in Darfur goes ignored because its victims are black and because those who are creating the misery in Darfur are not Americans or Israelis and we only pay attention when America and Israel behave badly.

We love to cry "Islamophobia" when we talk about the way Muslim minorities are treated in the West and yet we never stop to consider how we treat minorities and the most vulnerable among us."

Sudan elected to chair UN Group 77

Sudan has scored another diplomatic coup . . .

What about Darfuri children?

Ismail Ahmed Ismail entered the record books as the first Sudanese to win a medal in an Olympic. Good for him.

What bothered me is this: he dedicated his medal to the children of Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Where are the children from Darfur? Don't they deserve a medal?

Garang: a hero remembered

Youtube working for me . . . (not anymore)

The Sudanese Thinker reports that Youtube has been blocked in Sudan. Just wanna let you know that I still have access to Youtube, through the Canar ISP. Maybe it has not yet been blocked.

Here is a screen shot.

Update:

Youtube has finaly been blocked on the canar ISP. What a shame . . .

Ocampo vs Bashir: the way out

So Bashir has a chance of escaping the noose . . .

The Ocampo Factor

The ICC chief prosecutor has entered into the long list of those people who were "black listed", if I may say so in Sudan. The history of the Sudan has seen losts of them, who were given all sorts of names before Ocampo. Here is a sample:

• Casper Biro: He was appointed as a special UN Human Rights Commission Special Rapporteur for Sudan in 1993. He really pressed the government on the abysmal human rights records that Khartoum kept him out of the country
• Baroness Cox: worked as a humanitarian worker and has raised the issues of the civil war int he south, including the worse humanitarian crisis during that time. She was of such high profile that kept the South conflict in the agenda of the world. Khartoum charged her for illegal entry and sentence her in absentia to 5 years in prison!
• Jan Pronk: the last Head of the UN in Sudan who was kicked out in 2006 for posting in his weblog that the Sudanese Army was heavily defeated in a battle in Darfur.
• Luis Moreno-Ocampo: is the latest to enter the Sudanese list.

Are there others I missed? WHat do you think?

The indictment of President Bashir is imminent!

The world is bracing itself for the possible indictment of President Bashir and VP Taha for war crimes and genocide in Darfur!


What a development. The ICC prosecutor is preparing his case, which may be as early as Monday.


I don't know whether I should be happy or sad. The atrocities in Darfur really deserve world attention, the failure of implementation of the CPA in South Sudan needs more attention. The issues of Eastern Sudan and other areas are all of equal concern.


But what will the indictment of Bashir mean for peace in Sudan? At worse the world is bracing itself for a backlash: renewed fighting in South Sudan; more suffering of Darfuris; expulsion of UNAMID and withdrwal of cooperation with th einternational community. Expuslsion of ambassadors of Western countries, etc


As the Sudanese UN ambassador said "all options are open . . . and sky is the limit".

I think the world is right to be concern. Do we seek justice for long term effect at the cost of short term suffering and more deaths?


The next few days will surely be the most stressing for the Sudanese government.


. . . unless if the Chinese pull another trick and delay the indictment.

A half-truth statement

What is Sudan?

"An uncertain country haphazardly cobbled together first by the Ottomans in the 19th century and later by the British during the 20th. It has no cultural coherence or geopolitical logic, even though its populations have become used to living together". Gerard Prunier

Kizzie

Sadly, they have NEVER become used to living together! The 4o years of civil war since independence says all.

Sudan Census Crisis

I come out of hibernation just to ask one question. The SPLM suspended the Sudan National Census in the South because of issues of ethnicity and religion not featuring in the papers. My question is:

Why is the NCP afraid of including ethnicity and religion in the census data?

I have ideas, but let me here from you first . . .

Now it will go ahead again after one week

Teddy bear teacher to be freed

It is being announced that President Bashir has pardoned the school teacher involved in the teddy bear crisis.

I for one believe that it is the only sane way to end the crisis. After letting the courts practice their laws without interference (it would have been termed meddling in internal affairs of a sovereign state!) a presidential pardon is the only way to save face.

She had already served out half her time. Atleast, she had not seen the inside of the women prison. (she was kept in a secret location and fed lots of apples!) I had hoped she does even for a day so that she can tell the world the conditions as an eye withness!

Go well, Mrs Gibbons. I hope you dont bear grudges against the Sudanese people. The ragtag group into whose hands you fell are a minority and does not represent us at all. I wish you well.

Teddy bear case and sanity

Sudan is behaving like the bad boys and girls in hollywood who make headline news for the wrong reasons. I will change that to notoriety status.

The sensationalization of the teddy bear case of the British school teacher is just one of them. Yesterday's protest in Khartoum was organized by people who who don't care about the image of Sudan (or what is left of it) when calling for the death of the poor teacher. It is not un-imaginable knowing the track record, though.

The whole issue could have been handled more sanely.

Now two Muslim British members of parliament are in Khartoum to help with her release. I think the fact that she had already spent more than five days of her 15 days sentence leaves few margin for maneuvre. It looks more likely that poor Mrs Gibbons will serve her sentence before the appeal gets heard. Typical Sudanese justice.

I think it is only the president who can safe her the torment of the women prison in Omdurman. Now Sudan is in the headlines.

End the blame game, SPLM and NCP

When the SPLM pulled out its ministers from the Government of National Unity, everyone expects the worse to happen. When the blame game and name calling subsided, we are yet to see how it is all going to end.

It is unbelievably pathetic for the NCP to think that hey can get away with stalling and playing down the CPA. It is obvious from day one that the CPA will be in trouble. Where is the good faith everyone was singing in Naivasha?

The late John Garang said the CPA is a new born babe whose growth and development is the responsibility of the whole Sudanese people. It seems some people want this child dead before its fourth Birthday. It will fit with the general under five mortality rate for Sudan!