NCP dirty politics continue . . .

I have been away for long time and many things have happened:

a) SPLA officers defecting
b) Elections in Kadugli rigged in favour of a wanted criminal
c) NCP blocking food supply to South Sudan

All these the work of the NCP. I wonder what else the NCP have up their dirty sleeves. The only thing we know is that they are angry that South Sudanese have rejected to be slaves forever.

If they are using it as bargaining tactics over Abyei, we shall see in the near future.

Sudan election pushed back to 2010!

 It kind of not surprising that he elections has been put back to 2010. The selected date of of somewhere in July has been overshadowed by events so huge that it is inevitable that soemthing gives way.

Reasons of census results and borders are all true but they masks the real issues. Even before the ICC debacle and others, the impelemntation of the CPA was on a snail pace. There are still more to be desired.

Let the count down begin . . .

Queen Noor speaks . . .

Darfur an "obscenity", we are told . . .

 Queen Noor has added her voice to the cry coming out of Darfur. If not for the timing I would ask where has she been hiding all this time.

Maybe the ICC thing shook her from her slumber . . .(Sorry Queen!)

Arab backing and the showdown: round 2

Bashir made it to the  Arab Summit, had a faceof with the UN General Secretary and got Arab backing against the ICC.

It is a big public relations coup for the government against the West. When a big chung of the world  countries expressed their dis-satisfaction with events, I think the world better listen.

Ocampo has used his ighest card, as some analysts think, and th eonly last resort to apprehend the president is by invading the country.

Looking at what happened to Iraq, I don't think Obama will want to go that road again. It is just getting nastier by the day.

ICC, Arab League and Bashir

So Bashir is in  Doha for the Arab Summit

It is expected that the Sudanese president will want to show the world that he cannot be intimidated by the ICC warrant, about which he once said "soak in water and drink it". Nothing new there.

I was watching the news and all are concerned whether the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon will sit and listen to Bashir delivering his speech. My advise: Mr Moon, don't listen to the Americans, sit there and listen to what Bashir wants to say . . . Walking out is not a good sign ffrom the wolrd's top diplomat.

Let us wait and see.

ICC and Bashir: the Biritish and French Connection

So the French and the British are ready to support the deferral of the arrest warrant for the Sudanese President . . .

It had been a an issue thatan arrest warrant will put the peace in Southern Sudan in danger of collapse and wosrsen the plight of the Darfuris. And ofcourse put the UNAMID force under more danger.

Are we right? Are the possible threats real? It seems the world dont want to be on the trail and error side. To err may cause more lives than already been lost.

So better the caution.

The Arab League respond to ICC indictment

The Arab League has decided to stand by Sudan against the ICC decision. They have decided to show:

"solidarity with the Republic of Sudan in the face of any schemes aimed at undermining its sovereignty, unity and stability and not to accept the unbalanced position of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court at the request contained in a case submitted to the ICC (pre-trial Chamber)."

Now the indictment is getting more interesting indeed. How will the international community react. JEM has already deplored the AL position.

Ocampo vs Bashir: the SPLM position

SPLM, the junior partner of the NCP in the so called Government of National Unity found themselves between a rock and a very hard place.

How can they respond to the ICC accusations? It was the same people in the governemnt whom they fought for 20 years in the South. Now that they share the same government, it makes it more complicated.

The VP has been put in charge of the committee to challeneg the ICC and ministers are already scrambling around the Middle East and Africa to look for support for Sudan.

Here the SPLM official position on the ICC indictments:

The SPLM leadership was taken aback by the speed of recent developments in the case of ICC indictments of some Sudanese leaders including President of the Republic. This has understandably created a serious situation that could threaten peace and stability in the Sudan.

Over the past week, the SPLM leadership has been engaged in series of meetings in both Juba and Khartoum, discussing the matter. After wide consultations inside the SPLM and with the National Congress Party leadership, taking into account the declaration by the Prosecutor General of the ICC, the SPLM leadership resolve the following as a way to address the crisis:

1. That Darfur conflict is a political issue arising out of long and continuous political, economic and cultural marginalization since independence of the Sudan in 1956. Resolving this situation requires a negotiated and peaceful settlement of the conflict between the parties. Therefore the Government of National Unity is required to develop, within a week's time, a roadmap for resolution of Darfur conflict, in consultation with all the political forces and civil society groups in the country, specifically the groups in Darfur, in order to build national consensus for a fair and speedy resolution of the conflict.
2. The SPLM is ready to avail its resources and effort, and in particular its external relations, regionally and internationally for the purpose of achieving an understanding between the Government of National Unity and the international community. We believe that the solution to the crisis is for the Government of National Unity to forge an understanding with the international community and to cooperate with ICC on the legal processes.
3. The SPLM leadership, led by the First Vice President, will expedite efforts for a fair and comprehensive peaceful settlement of the Darfur crisis, which is a corner stone and correct entry point to deal with other consequences of the crisis.
4. Full implementation of the CPA and other peace agreements, furthering democratic transformation, promoting mutual understanding between the parties that constitute the government of national unity as well as other political forces is key to resolve the present crisis.

Ocampo vs Bashir: the way out

So Bashir has a chance of escaping the noose . . .

Americans are behind the ICC!

Source

Where are the Arab "friends"?

The Sudanese government must be feeling lonely indeed. The silence of the Arab governments over the indictment of Bashir is very noticeable.

The Arab leaders have decided to keep quiet. None has made any statements concerning the issue. The Arab league itself is yet to meet in an emergency meeting until Saturday and make an officila statement. If it were a Palestinian issue, an emergency meeting could have been convene within 72 hours!

And Sudan is said to be an Arab country. It must be real lonely up there for the president. I suggest he befriend Mugabe.

Where are the Egyptians, the Saudis, the Jordanians . . . The "loudest" silence of note is that of Mubarak.

Maybe each of the presidents are thinking that they maybe next on the list?

How about the Arab media? Except for the comments of the Saudi columnists critical of the regime before the indictment, there is non forth coming, unless ones am not familliar with. Arab News editorial could be the only commentary of note.

At least the Arab bloggers mentioned it: Black Iris of Jordan commented on "Who is your favourite war criminal?", the Mideast Youth on the Case for Sudan, not much has been mentioned. Even the Egyptian Sandmonkey didn't see it a topic worth discussing?

What about African Union? African Union are concerned about the losing the " gains that have been achieved so far" and creating a power vacuum in Sudan if the order is executed.

I thought it was gonna be a source of discussion for days on end. Maybe my expectations are beyond the reality.

Ocampo vs Bashir: the Chinese dilemma

The Chinese are worried about the ICC indictment of President Bashir, and rightly so . . .

The world had been blasting China over its relation with Khartoum because of the fighting and chaos in Darfur. China is seen as the stongest ally of Khartoum, supports it militarily and gets the bulk of the Sudanese oil. It is also complicated by the up coming olympic games in August.

Arguably, China wants to help Sudan, but also keep its friends in the West. It had waited afew days before making statements on the issue, a signed of the dilemma it finds itself in.

Even if the Chinese push for a Security Council vote to suspend the indictments, France and USA are sure to veto it. They also play tit for tat there. (China just vetoed a resolution against Zimbabwe!)

Whichever way it finally decides to act, Sudan risks losing its one friend and ally, and that will be the hardest thing to swallo in Khartoum

Bashir charged with genocide

President Bashir has been charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity! Here are the charges:

1. Genocide:
   Killing members of the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa ethnic groups
   Causing these groups serious bodily or mental harm
   Inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about these groups' physical destruction


2. Crimes against humanity:
   Murder
   Extermination
   Forcible transfer
   Rape
   Torture


3. War crimes:
   Attacks on civilians in Darfur
   Pillaging towns and villages

Ocampo vs Bashir 2

What does the possible indictment mean? Here are some positive sides to it?

1) clear signal about impunity
2) strengthen international institutions to reign in impunity

3) provoke more moderate elements in Khartoum regime to at last oust General Bashir (a la 1985 coup of Suwar al Dahab)
4) give comfort to relatively powerless domestic legitimate civil society opposition in Sudan
5) stengthen bargaining position of SPLM and opposition parties vis a vis NCP
6) give some justice to the families and children beaten, killed and
displaced by the brutal counter-insurgency
7) give General Bashir a chance to clear his name in a court of law

Source

Ocampo vs Bashir

Here is a website that logs the ICC proescution of Bashir. The articles and comments are interesting to read.

Social Science Research Council

The Ocampo Factor

The ICC chief prosecutor has entered into the long list of those people who were "black listed", if I may say so in Sudan. The history of the Sudan has seen losts of them, who were given all sorts of names before Ocampo. Here is a sample:

• Casper Biro: He was appointed as a special UN Human Rights Commission Special Rapporteur for Sudan in 1993. He really pressed the government on the abysmal human rights records that Khartoum kept him out of the country
• Baroness Cox: worked as a humanitarian worker and has raised the issues of the civil war int he south, including the worse humanitarian crisis during that time. She was of such high profile that kept the South conflict in the agenda of the world. Khartoum charged her for illegal entry and sentence her in absentia to 5 years in prison!
• Jan Pronk: the last Head of the UN in Sudan who was kicked out in 2006 for posting in his weblog that the Sudanese Army was heavily defeated in a battle in Darfur.
• Luis Moreno-Ocampo: is the latest to enter the Sudanese list.

Are there others I missed? WHat do you think?

The indictment of President Bashir is imminent!

The world is bracing itself for the possible indictment of President Bashir and VP Taha for war crimes and genocide in Darfur!


What a development. The ICC prosecutor is preparing his case, which may be as early as Monday.


I don't know whether I should be happy or sad. The atrocities in Darfur really deserve world attention, the failure of implementation of the CPA in South Sudan needs more attention. The issues of Eastern Sudan and other areas are all of equal concern.


But what will the indictment of Bashir mean for peace in Sudan? At worse the world is bracing itself for a backlash: renewed fighting in South Sudan; more suffering of Darfuris; expulsion of UNAMID and withdrwal of cooperation with th einternational community. Expuslsion of ambassadors of Western countries, etc


As the Sudanese UN ambassador said "all options are open . . . and sky is the limit".

I think the world is right to be concern. Do we seek justice for long term effect at the cost of short term suffering and more deaths?


The next few days will surely be the most stressing for the Sudanese government.


. . . unless if the Chinese pull another trick and delay the indictment.

Wanted by ICC: Haroun and Kushayb

The ICC has atlast issued the arrest warrants for the two suspects of the Darfur genocide: Ahmed Haroun and Ali Muhammad Ali Abd-al-Rahman, also know as Ali Kushayb.

We remain to see how this can be executed. Sudan has already rejected the warrants and said they will not hand over the suspects to the ICC. It is interesting, knowing that Sudan is not a signatory to the ICC.

The world's efforts to solve the Darfur conflict seem to be disjointed. There is a big drive to see the hybrid force sent to Darfur, and the rebels are trying to unite for a peace talks. The USA has already acknowledged that their are signs of Sudan relaxing its refusal of the deployment.

What could the arrest warrants add to these efforts? Nothing. Sudan will get more stubborn, the rebels more divided and the Darfurians will continue to suffer. As Khartoum plays the time game, the world wonders what to do next.

Sudan and the ICC: the story continues

Sudan has categorically ruled out challenging the admissibility of the Darfur report. Its point: being non-state member, there is no point in doing so. Period.

But will it get away? Let us just shade some light here. Put the nature or gravity of the case aside and let us look at ICC. The ICC has no jurisdiction over Sudan because it is a non-signatory of the Rome Statute. The statute said non-signatories can be referred for prosecution to the ICC if the conditions are deemed "a threat to international peace and security". The UN had referred Sudan on these grounds.

Now the question: why should any government sign the Rome statute if either way you will be prosecuted with it? Signing or not signing makes no difference. Now if Sudan does not cooperate, the arrest warrants go to Interpol for execution. I feel that Sudan is being tried as a test case and they want to succeed whatever way. Too bad.

The case is not going to end soon. And mind you, America is pushing Sudan to cooperate with the ICC, when it is no signatory itself! It is wary about Americans being dragged into the ICC! Call it double standards at global scale.

LRA conditions for talks

The elusive Ugandan Lords Resistance Army (LRA) rebels are at it again. After avoiding the Juba talks out of fear, they now have conditions to be fulfilled before they could return. Yeah, rebels too, have conditions. With ICC indictments hanging over their heads, they have all the reasons to be wary.

Including expansion of observers in the talks and increased security at collection camps, the LRA want the following:

• an allowance increase for the negotiation team
• the deployment of 1,000 peacekeeping troops to areas where the rebels are to assemble in south Sudan
• Ugandan soldiers to withdraw from south Sudan
• to be treated with respect by the mediation team
• a guarantee of security for their delegation in Juba.

People just gotta to be patient with the rebels, cajoling and persuading. But time may run out . . .