Ocampo vs Bashir: the Chinese dilemma

The Chinese are worried about the ICC indictment of President Bashir, and rightly so . . .

The world had been blasting China over its relation with Khartoum because of the fighting and chaos in Darfur. China is seen as the stongest ally of Khartoum, supports it militarily and gets the bulk of the Sudanese oil. It is also complicated by the up coming olympic games in August.

Arguably, China wants to help Sudan, but also keep its friends in the West. It had waited afew days before making statements on the issue, a signed of the dilemma it finds itself in.

Even if the Chinese push for a Security Council vote to suspend the indictments, France and USA are sure to veto it. They also play tit for tat there. (China just vetoed a resolution against Zimbabwe!)

Whichever way it finally decides to act, Sudan risks losing its one friend and ally, and that will be the hardest thing to swallo in Khartoum

Ocampo vs Bashir: the fallout

SO Bashir has been indicted by the ICC. So what comes next now?

The ICC prosecutor has taken the boldest step ever. Charging a sitting head of state fo genocide can get him a round of applause,but that is leaving lots of people wary of the future.

So far the armageddon predicted has not happened, yet. No UN staff has been shot in the street and no car-jackings reported in Khartoum. Were the fears groundless?

Not at all. There are lots of people out there in the street who are stupid enough to start anything. It may not be the official response of the government, but some lunatics may take the lawlessness into their hands and rick havoc.

I personally think it was a wrong move on the part of the ICC. Now that he has made his point, I think UN Security Council should suspend the possible arrest warrant from being issued.

They now have a big leverage over Khartoum: you better cooperate now and end the chaos in Darfur or else . . .

Could that work? Possibly. Khartoum never really thought that the prosecutor could actually charge Bashir. Now they got the message loud and clear.

Bashir charged with genocide

President Bashir has been charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity! Here are the charges:

1. Genocide:
   Killing members of the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa ethnic groups
   Causing these groups serious bodily or mental harm
   Inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about these groups' physical destruction


2. Crimes against humanity:
   Murder
   Extermination
   Forcible transfer
   Rape
   Torture


3. War crimes:
   Attacks on civilians in Darfur
   Pillaging towns and villages

Ocampo vs Bashir 2

What does the possible indictment mean? Here are some positive sides to it?

1) clear signal about impunity
2) strengthen international institutions to reign in impunity

3) provoke more moderate elements in Khartoum regime to at last oust General Bashir (a la 1985 coup of Suwar al Dahab)
4) give comfort to relatively powerless domestic legitimate civil society opposition in Sudan
5) stengthen bargaining position of SPLM and opposition parties vis a vis NCP
6) give some justice to the families and children beaten, killed and
displaced by the brutal counter-insurgency
7) give General Bashir a chance to clear his name in a court of law

Source

Ocampo vs Bashir

Here is a website that logs the ICC proescution of Bashir. The articles and comments are interesting to read.

Social Science Research Council

The Ocampo Factor

The ICC chief prosecutor has entered into the long list of those people who were "black listed", if I may say so in Sudan. The history of the Sudan has seen losts of them, who were given all sorts of names before Ocampo. Here is a sample:

• Casper Biro: He was appointed as a special UN Human Rights Commission Special Rapporteur for Sudan in 1993. He really pressed the government on the abysmal human rights records that Khartoum kept him out of the country
• Baroness Cox: worked as a humanitarian worker and has raised the issues of the civil war int he south, including the worse humanitarian crisis during that time. She was of such high profile that kept the South conflict in the agenda of the world. Khartoum charged her for illegal entry and sentence her in absentia to 5 years in prison!
• Jan Pronk: the last Head of the UN in Sudan who was kicked out in 2006 for posting in his weblog that the Sudanese Army was heavily defeated in a battle in Darfur.
• Luis Moreno-Ocampo: is the latest to enter the Sudanese list.

Are there others I missed? WHat do you think?

The indictment of President Bashir is imminent!

The world is bracing itself for the possible indictment of President Bashir and VP Taha for war crimes and genocide in Darfur!


What a development. The ICC prosecutor is preparing his case, which may be as early as Monday.


I don't know whether I should be happy or sad. The atrocities in Darfur really deserve world attention, the failure of implementation of the CPA in South Sudan needs more attention. The issues of Eastern Sudan and other areas are all of equal concern.


But what will the indictment of Bashir mean for peace in Sudan? At worse the world is bracing itself for a backlash: renewed fighting in South Sudan; more suffering of Darfuris; expulsion of UNAMID and withdrwal of cooperation with th einternational community. Expuslsion of ambassadors of Western countries, etc


As the Sudanese UN ambassador said "all options are open . . . and sky is the limit".

I think the world is right to be concern. Do we seek justice for long term effect at the cost of short term suffering and more deaths?


The next few days will surely be the most stressing for the Sudanese government.


. . . unless if the Chinese pull another trick and delay the indictment.

A half-truth statement

What is Sudan?

"An uncertain country haphazardly cobbled together first by the Ottomans in the 19th century and later by the British during the 20th. It has no cultural coherence or geopolitical logic, even though its populations have become used to living together". Gerard Prunier

Kizzie

Sadly, they have NEVER become used to living together! The 4o years of civil war since independence says all.

Pagan Amun in the dock

The SPLM and NCP are gearing up for another crisis. Maybe Abyei is making little headway, but recents comments by the Minister of Cabinet Affairs Pagan Amun, whois also the SPLM Secretary General, has landed him in the bad books of the GoNU.

Amun's statements that Sudan is a failed State has not been taken lightly by the NCP. Now it is the president who suspended him as Minister, lifted his immunity and ordered an investigation.

How will the SPLM respond? The truth is, SPLM is part of the government, although a junior partner ignored in most issues.

What the Presidential Advisor said is actually very true: "The problem of Pagan and the triangle of secularism within the SPM is that they feel disappointed and miserable because the NCP is able to overcome their shrewdness and cunningness and even come out stronger"

The partners are playing a game of cat and mouse and who will out-shrewed the other: from the issues of Abyei, pulling out of the government etc.

Now, we wait and see who delivers the KO punches. SPLM has not yet responded.

Sudan Census Crisis

I come out of hibernation just to ask one question. The SPLM suspended the Sudan National Census in the South because of issues of ethnicity and religion not featuring in the papers. My question is:

Why is the NCP afraid of including ethnicity and religion in the census data?

I have ideas, but let me here from you first . . .

Now it will go ahead again after one week