Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Ocampo vs Bashir: the fallout

SO Bashir has been indicted by the ICC. So what comes next now?

The ICC prosecutor has taken the boldest step ever. Charging a sitting head of state fo genocide can get him a round of applause,but that is leaving lots of people wary of the future.

So far the armageddon predicted has not happened, yet. No UN staff has been shot in the street and no car-jackings reported in Khartoum. Were the fears groundless?

Not at all. There are lots of people out there in the street who are stupid enough to start anything. It may not be the official response of the government, but some lunatics may take the lawlessness into their hands and rick havoc.

I personally think it was a wrong move on the part of the ICC. Now that he has made his point, I think UN Security Council should suspend the possible arrest warrant from being issued.

They now have a big leverage over Khartoum: you better cooperate now and end the chaos in Darfur or else . . .

Could that work? Possibly. Khartoum never really thought that the prosecutor could actually charge Bashir. Now they got the message loud and clear.

4 comments:

Leonardo B. said...

Hi Black Kush,
really good blog!
My understanding of the events is that ICC is right in indicting Al-Bashir administration for the Darfour Crisis, as it had been very often right (it should prosecute a lot more indeed). Infact, only when a country is no more an economic partner that an Institution can look with unclouded eyes on a disastrous situation and its responsables/sponsors. Yet ICC hand should have been more gentle, avoiding to utter the name. Now ICC should withdraw the accuse or better formulate it in order to have Khartoum studying some emergency package of laws and set a referendum on Federalism as is the case now in South Sudan. But let´s consider the worst scenario: President impeachment, International isolation (impossible as Sudan would simply turn to China as it did since 1995)invasion and regime change. Where the new Gov. should stem from? Once you sack the whole ruling machine, you have a tremendous power void and the very fabric of statehood caves in (as is the case of Iraq). Worst of all, Sudan has not a clear one-party system (with Cadres) as Iraq had (and Syria has) in the Baath party.
Therefore...I agree, let´s be realistic and avoid a broadening of unrest in the Horn of Africa.

Best
Leonardo

Black Kush said...

Thanks for dropping by. It is going to be real interesting how the whole issue turns out.

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